—As Guinean Authorities Opposed transshipment deal
IPNEWS: Reports from the Republic of Guinea says authorities of the Guinean government have not formally consented to HPX transshipping its iron ore through Liberia despite huge public relations here in Liberia.
It appears unlikely to do so, causing significant uncertainty and potential diplomatic issues for Liberia. Sources tell the authoritative Independent Probe Newspaper that the current Guinean government is prioritizing its own domestic infrastructure project.
In fact, the Guinean authorities have not provided written or formal approval for HPX to use Liberian rail and port infrastructure. Despite repeated requests from Liberian officials, HPX has failed to provide proof of Guinea’s consent contrary to huge public relations in Liberia about creation of jobs and other opportunities.
Currently, Guinea is near completion on its own Trans-Guinean Railway and deep-water port project, an approximately $18 billion investment, designed to ensure all its iron ore exports, including from the Nimba region, are processed and transported within its own borders. The project is expected to be operational by the end of 2025.
Successive Guinean governments have maintained a long-standing policy of economic nationalism, insisting that mineral resources be developed with domestic infrastructure to generate in-country revenue and control, which directly conflicts with HPX’s plan to export through Liberia.
In the wake of these scaring reports, yet the Liberian government signed a 25-year Concession and Access Agreement with HPX (through its subsidiary Ivanhoe Atlantic) in July 2025, which would grant rail and port access for Guinean ore, subject to necessary bilateral arrangements with Guinea.
The deal has sparked intense debate and controversy within Liberia. Critics, including some lawmakers and civil society groups, have raised concerns about sovereignty, the lack of transparency, and the potential for a diplomatic rift with Guinea if the deal is ratified without explicit Guinean approval.
The agreement was submitted to the Liberian legislature for ratification in October 2025, but a decision is pending as committees review the concerns.
In essence, Guinea’s silence and active pursuit of its own independent export route indicate strong opposition to HPX’s plan, making the future of the transshipment arrangement highly uncertain.
The proposed arrangement hinges on exporting iron ore from SMFG/HPX’s Nimba deposit in Guinea through Liberia’s Yekepa–Buchanan corridor—but no public, formal consent by the Government of Guinea (GoG) has been produced. Liberia’s own officials and communities have asked HPX to provide proof of Guinea’s approval, without success.
Guinea is simultaneously completing the US$18+ billion Trans-Guinean Railway and deep-water port to ship ore through Guinea under Guinean control by late 2025. Allowing Nimba ore to exit via Liberia directly undermines that policy and raises the risk that Conakry refuses or revokes permissions for SMFG – leaving Liberia exposed after committing rail capacity and political capital.
Regional legal opinion flags the deal as “resource arbitrage” that bypasses sovereign processes and requires Guinea’s authorization under the 2021 Liberia – Guinea transshipment framework. Proceeding without this exposes Liberia to negative bilateral sentiments from Guinea.
Experts have warned that If ratified as-is, Liberia risks diplomatic strain with Guinea, stranded or under-utilized rail capacity, litigation from other companies in Liberia, community backlash, and reputational harm—especially if Guinea blocks exports or revokes SMFG’s license in response.
“Ratification should be deferred or conditioned until (i) written, current GoG consent is furnished, (ii) a full risk/impact assessment is tabled, and (iii) multi-user, national-interest protections are legally embedded.” A mining Expert not wanting to be named cautions.
Some of the Strategic Context & What Has Changed, signifies that Liberia is “moving swiftly” to enable HPX/SMFG transit, while Guinea, however, has not publicly endorsed cross-border exports via Liberia since its transitional government took office; historically, Guinea has insisted that iron ore exits via domestic infrastructure, a stance now reinforced by the Trans-Guinean build-out.
Analysts note HPX/Ivanhoe Atlantic mining project lies roughly 67 km from the Trans-Guinean route; connecting the project to Guinea’s line is cheaper and more logical, hence a high probability of Guinean resistance.
As the back and forth continues, there are some Key Risks to Liberia including Legal & Sovereignty which may pose huge consequences for Liberia if ratified.
Mining experts have cautioned that under the 2021 Transshipment Implementation Agreement, export of Guinean minerals via Liberia requires prior Guinean authorization. Proceeding without it invites disputes and enforcement challenges across borders.
Also, the deal is characterized by regional experts as “corporate repackaging of sovereign assets”, undermining both Guinea’s and Liberia’s sovereign control narratives and exposing Liberia to claims of aiding a bypass of Guinea’s authority.
B. Diplomatic & Security Risk
Particularly, this deal, when ratified without the Guinean government’s written approval risks destabilizing bilateral trust between the two neighbours. Ratification amid Guinea’s public silence could be read as Liberia pre-judging Guinea’s sovereign decision, inviting retaliation or downgrades in security and economic cooperation between the two countries.
It may be recalled in February 2024 a High Power Exploration (HPX) and its partner, Guma Africa Group, signed a letter of intent with Liberia to develop the “Liberty Corridor,” a series of infrastructure projects with a projected cost of $3 billion to $5 billion. The project was meant to create a new heavy-duty railway from Guinea’s Nimba district to a Liberian deepwater port, alongside road, power, and telecommunications upgrades.
However, between May and July 2025 HPX and its subsidiary, Ivanhoe Atlantic (formerly Ivanhoe Liberia), had abandoned the $5 billion Liberty Corridor project. Instead, Ivanhoe Atlantic signed a much-criticized Access Agreement worth $1.8 billion with the Liberian government in early July 2025, granting it access to Liberia’s existing rail infrastructure, which is currently operated by ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML).
The $1.8 billion rail access deal with Ivanhoe Atlantic was signed secretly on July 6, 2025, just before President Joseph Nyuma Boakai’s trip to the U.S.. The secrecy surrounding the deal has prompted backlash and scrutiny from Liberian civil society groups and politicians.
The new agreement with Ivanhoe Atlantic potentially violates AML’s existing concession, which gives it rights to the railway until 2030 and a planned $1.2 billion expansion project.
However, the authoritative Independent Probe Newspaper broke the news that earlyOctober 2025, that President Boakai was furious upon discovering that HPX’s claim of arranging his White House invitation was false. He reportedly feels misled and is considering reversing the deal.
Despite the controversy, the Access Agreement was submitted to the Liberian legislature for ratification in October 2025. A review by a joint committee is underway. Watch out for Part 2
